http://kn.cilt.org/cscl99/A29/A29.HTM
Abstract: Threads in a computer conferencing systems develop in seemingly
unpredictable ways. Each time someone starts a new discussion or extends an
existing line of thought, there is a subtle shift in the intellectual
spotlight ñ a shift that influences the contribution patterns of subsequent
users. Active threads may unexpectedly fade to the background, and older,
inactive threads may regain centre stage. Yet within this complex ebb and
flow, there are certain indicators that help predict a threadís future. An
analysis of the 1571 threads in 7 distance education conferences reveals
patterns of development that can be used to statistically assign growth
probabilities to individual threads. Possible applications of these
findings are discussed.
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