[ba-unrev-talk] Fwd: [issues] It has really hit the fan
>From: "Werbos, Dr. Paul J." <pwerbos@nsf.gov>
>
>Based on yesterday's news... it now seems as if the only alternatives to war
>would be something even more drastic than war. This could conceivably
>change back.. but for now... a lot has changed.
>
>In essence, Saddam has made it very clear that he will NOT destroy missiles
>in clear violation of treaty, and of major military significance, because
>he could not
>possibly compromise the principle of maximizing his military strength, period.
>And others have made it equally clear that it should not matter whether he
>has lots
>and lots of missiles, or anything else. And it is clearly reasonable to
>guess that the missiles
>are the tip of an iceberg.
>
>Given how clear this is... I see little chance at all that Bush could
>possibly back down.
>
>The obvious questions now are -- who will move first, where and when?
>And also -- will NATO continue to exist at all? These are complex and
>interesting questions.
>
>Regardless of what happens, under these circumstances, it would be
>suicidal for the US **NOT**
>to invest a whole lot more mental effort (first) and money (second) to make
>sure that its economy, at least, will not grind to a halt in ten years if
>MidEast oil goes to zero.
>(The issue is not who gets the profit from oil sales -- but whether there
>will be sales at all.)
>We probably should have done that ANYWAY, but at this point it becomes a
>life-and-death matter.
>But then again, I wonder: is the level of honesty and complexity required
>for such an effort beyond the capacity of
>the folks who would spend the money, regardless of the nature of the
>crisis? The options
>are there... even with a target ten years from now.
>
>Hint: the world will not be all driving hydrogen cars in ten years, in any
>case.
>Further hint: technology and research are critical, but CERTAINLY not the
>whole thing.
>
>Best of luck,
>
> Paul W.
> (01)
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