From: "Bill & Sharon Bearden" <bbearden@bcl.net>
Co-Evolution has been presented in this seminar mainly as a limiting force.
Higher level capabilities are not possible because lower level ones have not
been attained. For me, the best example of this has been Virtual Presence. This
is a key capability for the future. And while our desktop computers can support
the richness of interaction required for Virtual Presence, our networks don't
universally have the bandwidth and low latency that we need.
So, Virtual Presence waits on one capability to increase while others are
already there.
But doesn't it work both ways? Shouldn't we factor expected capabilities into
our plans for solving global problems?
In session 3 of the colloquium, Neil Jacobstein talked about what is perhaps
the most powerful and most basic capability imaginable: nano-technology. And if
I heard right, he is projecting that this capability will be useful in 10 or 20
years.
How long will the global energy problem last once nano-technology is in wide
use? Imagine factories using massive nano-machines (is that an oxymoron?)
that can input air and
re-arrange the carbon and hydrogen atoms into a gasoline like fuel. Imagine
replacing all of the current catalytic converters on cars with units that
change the carbon dioxide and water back into fuel before it gets into
the environment as pollution.
And imagine the computer systems that will be possible. I personally can't wait
to get displays with a resolution 10 times that of the retina. It will then
indeed be difficult to tell if it is live or Memorex.
If nano-technology is really that close, the problems that lend themselves
to physical or chemical solutions aren't the ones we need to worry about. The
capabilities that limit human-kind will be at the level of biology and
psychology. Their solutions will require wisdom, not mere information or
knowledge.
Bill Bearden
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.0.0 : Tue Aug 21 2001 - 18:56:38 PDT