[unrev-II] Analysis of Current Situation Builds DKR

From: Rod Welch (rowelch@attglobal.net)
Date: Thu Sep 13 2001 - 09:50:24 PDT

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    Analysis is an important part of organizational memory that comprises a dynamic
    knowledge capability, and doing this work contributes to understanding how to
    create an effective DKR, so don't hold back. Doing the analysis contributes to
    your objective for better technology.

    Got to run, just got notice of a bomb problem in the Embarcadero Center across
    the street here. Maybe we're next...


    Jack Park wrote:
    > We are seeing some interesting thoughts role around these days. Too bad we
    > don't have an up-and-running DKR to collect all this stuff and analyze it...
    > >From: Paul Werbos <pwerbos@nsf.gov>
    > >Subject: Re: [announce] horror
    > >Sender: owner-announce@isss.org
    > >
    > >
    > > >The concept of "prayer" includes the notion of the ability to appeal to an
    > > >absolute authority. It implies an exclusive, or privileged relationship
    > > >with that authority, which in turn implies special approval of the behavior
    > > >of the individual who enjoys such a relationship. Whether one is praying
    > > >for jihad, or for the end to jihad, one is participating in the same
    > > >systemic behavior that has a divisive effect, and bolsters, with the
    > > >feeling of special access to authoritative approval, the us-against-them
    > > >attitude that perpetuates conflict everywhere on our planet.
    > > >
    > > >I plead with the systems community to move our discourse into a more
    > > >neutral context. Each of us may pray as we will, in the privacy of our own
    > > >minds. But in our public utterances, let us leverage the adaptive power of
    > >
    > >The real horror in this situation (in my personal opinion) is not with what
    > >happened but with
    > >what may happen. A critical role of systems theory, in the broadest sense,
    > >is to evaluate the
    > >larger future implications and possibilities -- and solutions, in some sense.
    > >
    > >In the past, many people have proposed, as a possible solution, that all
    > >conversations between
    > >more than one person should exclude all reference to any dimension of life
    > >or emotion which cannot
    > >be formulated in operational terms -- objective, value free propositions
    > >which clearly do not invoke any sort of controversial
    > >concept such as religion, prayer, meditation, intuition, and so on.
    > >
    > >I would argue that the intense support of this possible solution is one of
    > >the many important causes behind what we are
    > >seeing in the Middle East. More precisely, there are many people in that
    > >area who fear that the driving economic power of the West
    > >is committed to imposing that sort of tyrannical rule on the entire culture
    > >of the world -- gradually and gently, for the most part,
    > >but in a relentless, inexorable way. They fear that the tides of history
    > >will wash over them and destroy them completely, if they do not
    > >invoke some sort of desperate response, based on some combination of
    > >catharsis and violence which comes from outside
    > >the world of the trends which are threatening them.
    > >
    > >There is some real irony here. George Bush himself comes from an
    > >assertively pastoral state, Texas (OK, it's cows instead of sheep, but big
    > >deal...)...
    > >which has asserted its own independence in many ways for many years...
    > >which has a staunchly religious culture.. and was himself elected in great
    > >part
    > >as a reaction against a culture viewed as too cosmpolitan, secular and
    > >corrupt... As with Aghanistan, the rest of the world views his pastoral
    > >origins with skepticism because of fear that they have sold out too much to
    > >oil millionaires.. and it is curious to see people on TV interviews
    > >proposing that the people of such a pastoral land should be eradicated
    > >because of how much they have sold out to the wrong
    > >oil millionaires.
    > >
    > >Yet... what CAN be done? What scenarios exist for things not to become
    > >immeasurably worse?
    > >
    > >It may well be that greater clarity WITHIN the spiritual consciousness of
    > >the Islamic world is the only
    > >hope that exists for a scenario in which the human race continues to exist
    > >beyond a relatively limited time
    > >interval. At least, that is my personal view. Should such views be
    > >inherently nondiscussable? Should there
    > >be no place at all where one can discuss dynamic models of human evolution
    > >in which vector variables
    > >like "spiritual consciousness" can have an important causal role? If
    > >everyone agrees that such models are absurd,
    > >then there would be a basis for their being absolutely nondiscussable. But
    > >what is there is a chance that
    > >understanding such dynamics is in fact central to our survival, after the
    > >fact?
    > >
    > >In any case, my intuition suggests that there are realistic scenarios or
    > >paths to Armageddon here both on the left and on the right --
    > >either by allowing the Osama bin Laden phenomenon to grow unchecked, like a
    > >cancer, or by provoking much greater conflict between
    > >the Islamic world and the West. Either one would take us to a kind of
    > >"stage 4" dynamical system, where the rules change and
    > >the probability of total human extinction is much greater than at present.
    > >If the Islamic world itself takes a leadership role
    > >in truly appreciating the level of evil which has taken hold here, and the
    > >need to root it out by themselves becoming
    > >true forceful spiritual leaders... maybe calling on US airpower or
    > >forensic science on occasion, but always in a subordinate role...
    > >then perhaps we can avoid those extremes. It is regrettable that we in the
    > >West have not engaged in so much deep dialogue with
    > >Pakistan and Iran as we should have, in recent years... and one may argue
    > >that the need for such a dialogue, with
    > >recognition of the spiritual dimensions of that dialogue, is one of the
    > >real needs here.
    > >
    > >I am often a strong advocate and developer of technology... but there are
    > >times when technology is not the prime
    > >answer.
    > >
    > >Again, these are just personal opinions. But somehow there should be some
    > >place for discussion of such issues...
    > >
    > >Best of luck... to us all...
    > >
    > > Paul W.
    > >
    > >P.S. Of course there are also many causal variables which we cannot change
    > >at this time. I still remember the moment,
    > >during the Presidentiual debates, when Gore suddenly said "Make no
    > >mistake... we stand by Israel." Maybe that was
    > >when we went from stage 1 to stage 2. I do hope that I have not made such
    > >an unintended misleading statement myself'
    > >here in this email... but c'est la vie. I just hope it won't become a case
    > >of "c'etait la vie."
    > >
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